A new dataset developed through documentation of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), has confirmed Karakorum as High Mountain Asia’s epicenter of recurrent GLOFs.
The dataset is a repository of over 700 glacial lake outburst floods dating back almost two centuries, and including recent devastating events in Asia, said a press release issued by ICIMOD.
Karakorum, the world’s second-highest mountain range, has seen the highest number of recurrent recorded glacial lake outburst floods in High Mountain Asia.
The new database records over 7,000 lives have already been lost to the phenomenon in the region, it continued.
“It is always a challenge to get historic data on High Mountain Asia, because the region is inaccessible, and research here has historically been so difficult,” said Finu Shrestha of ICIMOD.
“Through painstaking collaboration with regional partners, we have managed to piece together a robust picture of major events in this region dating back to 1833.
“This provides us with a sense of how hazards are changing in the mountains over time and a way of capturing their impacts. It will help us to track how temperature rises, permafrost thaw and precipitation, are driving these events and to monitor, guide, and improve mitigation measures to protect vulnerable human populations, biodiversity and hydropower investments,” Finu added.
Sharing some key takeaways from the current records on the dashboard, the press statement added that over 7,000 people have lost their lives to GLOFs in High Mountain Asia in the past 190 years, with 102 deaths from South Lhonak (India) event which is higher than the recent past.
Impacts from GLOF events have increased over threefold since the previous regional assessment, showing the importance of consulting local sources for accurate estimates of loss and damage.
The development of high-value infrastructure at higher elevations increases exposure to GLOFs. Around 23% GLOFs were recurrent events, with the highest frequency observed in ice-dammed glacial lakes in the Karakorum region, pointing to ongoing risks for local communities.
The overall increase in GLOFs is mainly due to better observations and reporting, but the overall damage to infrastructure from these events has likely increased in the recent past.
Over half (54%) of GLOFs were triggered by mass movement such as avalanches, rock falls and landslides (such as in Sikkim in 2023), while 18% were due to intense rainfall events.
This points to a need for better forecasting of precipitation at altitude as well as mapping of an increasingly unstable cryosphere.
Without a major step up in monitoring, mitigation and early warning for all, it is likely we will see more major examples of GLOFs.
The impacts of GLOFs originating in one country can occur in a second country, with eight GLOF events in China, for instance, having an extensive impact in Nepal.
